Credit: Unsplash
November 08, 2022
| Data | Purpose | Source | Updated | Slide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily border crossings | Based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand, these data do not incorporate arrival card information so no breakdown of traveller type | StatsNZ | 30 Oct 2022 | 1. Overall border arrivals continue to increase, arrivals to Queenstown above 2019 levels |
| Weekly visitor arrivals | Short-term overseas visitor data from arrival card information | StatsNZ | 16 Oct 2022 | 2. Australian visitor arrivals fall as school holidays end |
| 3. Number of holiday visitor arrivals continue to exceed VFR arrivals | ||||
| Operating airline capacity data | Estimated operating airline capacity for the next six months, indicating the capacity airlines intend to make available. | Sabre Market Intelligence | Forecasts to Apr-2023 | 4. Operating airline capacity up to 69% of 2019’s level by the end of 2022 |
| Consumer spend data | Uses electronic card data as indicator of change in expenditure patterns in the economy | MBIE | 30 Oct 2022 | 5. International electronic card transaction (ECT) spend still down 19% |
| 6. Spend in regions more reliant on international tourism is still below the national average | ||||
| Working holiday scheme visa information | Monthly working holiday visa scheme approval and arrivals. | Immigration NZ | Oct 2022 | 7. October Working Holiday Scheme (WHS) visa arrivals down a third on 2019 levels |
| 8. October WHS visa approvals boosted by 'Special Direction' types | ||||
| 9. WHS visa population in New Zealand increased in Oct 2022, but still down 59% on Oct 2019 |
Overall border arrivals to NZ reached 86,900 in the week-ended 30 Oct, down 38% on the same week in 2019.
Of the overall border arrivals, 44,100 were non-New Zealand citizens (51%).
Arrival figures have steadily increased for each airport, with Queenstown up 9% in the week-ended 30 Oct compared with 2019.
| Week-ended 30 Oct 2022 | Border arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland Airport | 64,600 | -39% |
| Christchurch Airport | 8,900 | -49% |
| Wellington Airport | 7,100 | -31% |
| Queenstown Airport | 6,200 | 9% |
In the week-ended 16 Oct, there were 30,800 international visitor arrivals, 53% of 2019's level. This figure was down from the 40,000 peak at the end of September.
The major driver of this was a fall in Australian arrivals, down to 16,700 in the week-ended 16 Oct, from a high of 27,000 the end of September.
These falls were due to school holidays in Australia ending, after they began at the end of September.
| Week-ended 16 Oct 2022 | Visitor arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 16,700 | -41% |
| USA | 2,500 | -55% |
| UK | 2,000 | -41% |
International visitor arrivals to NZ for the purpose of a holiday fell to 12,300 in week-ended 16 Oct, after they peaked at the end of September in the Australian school holidays.
This figure continues to be greater than the 10,100 that arrived to visit friends and relatives.
| Week-ended 16 Oct 2022 | Visitor arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday/vacation | 12,300 | -61% |
| Visit friends/relatives | 10,100 | -40% |
| Business | 4,200 | -59% |
By the end of 2022, total operating airline capacity for international arrivals to New Zealand is estimated to grow to 69% of 2019 levels.
North American airline capacity is expected to continue recovering to pre-COVID levels faster than other regions through to the end of the year. This recovery is boosted by new flight routes from Dallas and New York.
| Total airline capacity | % change vs same month in 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | North America | Total | |
International ECT spend spend in NZ in the week-ended 30 Oct was down 19% compared to the same week in 2019.
Spend in the industries 'food and liquor' (up 25% in the latest week) and 'fuel and automotive’ (down 2%) have been closest to 2019 levels over the past couple of months.
Spend figures have not been adjusted for inflation (the rate of increase in prices over a given period). Therefore, spend figures are expected to be closer to 2019 levels than arrival figures which aren't adjusted.
International ECT spend in regions more reliant on international tourism is still below the average weekly spend for all New Zealand (down 19% in the latest week).
This gap has been shrinking, likely due to holiday visitors making up a larger proportion of arrivals. Holiday visitors are more likely to participate in and spend on traditional tourism activities.
A strong ski season in Queenstown resulted in international spend hovering around the national average up until the end of winter, but has dropped below the national average again in October.
WHS visa arrivals totalled 4,310 in October 2022, similar to the number seen in September (4,620).
Compared to pre-COVID levels, WHS visa arrivals are down 33% on the 6,490 that arrived in Oct 2019.
WHS visa arrivals for 2022 up until the end of October totalled 14,760.
The increase in WHS visa arrivals was driven by arrivals from Europe, with the Germany topping the list in October at 970 arrivals.
| Country | WHS visa arrivals - Sep 2022 |
|---|---|
| Germany | 970 |
| UK | 880 |
| France | 705 |
| Ireland | 230 |
| US | 210 |
| Other | 1310 |
WHS visa approvals increased to 18,290 in Oct 2022.
This large increase was due to a further 14,200 Special Direction WHS visas being approved in Oct, after 18,000 were approved in March.
In comparison, approvals that were not Special Direction fell from 7,300 in Sept to 4,090 in Oct.
This resulted in approvals for Oct 2022 almost tripling those in Oct 2019, showing good potential for arrivals for the summer season.
The large figure for March 2022 was due to WHS Special Direction visas being granted automatically.
WHS visa holders in New Zealand increased to 14,140 by the end of Oct 2022.
Although WHS visa holders have increased, the current figure is still down 59% on the 35,000 in the country at the end of Oct 2019.