Credit: Unsplash
October 18, 2022
| Data | Purpose | Source | Updated | Slide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily border crossings | Based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand, these data do not incorporate arrival card information so no breakdown of traveller type | StatsNZ | 9 Oct 2022 | 1. Overall border arrivals reached another post-COVID record |
| Weekly visitor arrivals | Short-term overseas visitor data from arrival card information | StatsNZ | 25 Sep 2022 | 2. Australian visitor arrivals trended upwards as their spring school holidays began |
| 3. Number of holiday visitor arrivals continue to exceed VFR arrivals | ||||
| Operating airline capacity data | Estimated operating airline capacity for the next six months, indicating the capacity airlines intend to make available. | Sabre Market Intelligence | Forecasts to Feb-2023 | 4. Operating airline capacity up to 73% of 2019’s level by end of year |
| Consumer spend data | Uses electronic card data as indicator of change in expenditure patterns in the economy | MBIE | 9 Oct 2022 | 5. International electronic card transaction (ECT) spend still down 31% |
| 6. Spend in regions more reliant on international tourism is still below the national average | ||||
| Working holiday scheme visa information | Monthly working holiday visa scheme approval and arrivals. | Immigration NZ | Sep 2022 | 7. September Working Holiday Scheme (WHS) visa arrivals almost double those in August |
| 8. September Working Holiday Scheme (WHS) visa approvals higher than any point in 2019 |
Overall border arrivals to NZ reached a new post-COVID record at 80,500 in the seven days to 25 Sep, surpassing peak levels seen in the July school holidays.
In the latest seven days to 9 Oct, this figure was 78,400, down 44% on 2019’s level, dipping as ski season draws to a close.
In this latest week, arrivals to Queenstown (4,800) dropped below Wellington's (5,600) for the first time since June as winter season comes to a close. On the other hand, arrivals to Auckland increased to 60,000.
| Week-ended 9 Oct 2022 | Border arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland Airport | 60,000 | -44% |
| Christchurch Airport | 8,000 | -54% |
| Wellington Airport | 5,600 | -46% |
| Queenstown Airport | 4,800 | -29% |
In the seven days to 25 Sep, there were 38,500 international visitor arrivals, 57% of 2019's level.
Over that week, Australian visitor arrivals totalled 26,900, the highest since COVID began, 74% of 2019’s level.
This was driven by school holiday beginning in QLD and VIC, and had just begun for NSW, ACT and WA (from Saturday 24).
| Week-ended 25 Sep 2022 | Visitor arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 26,900 | -26% |
| USA | 2,000 | -43% |
| UK | 1,400 | -40% |
International visitor arrivals to NZ for the purpose of a holiday reached 16,500 in the seven days to 25 Sep.
This figure continues to be greater than the 13,900 that arrived to visit friends and relatives.
The composition of arrivals is different from what we saw in the July school holidays, where more visited for friends and relatives (14,300/week average) than for a holiday (13,600/week average).
| Week-ended 25 Sep 2022 | Visitor arrivals | Change vs same week in 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday/vacation | 16,500 | -55% |
| Visit friends/relatives | 13,900 | -28% |
| Business | 4,300 | -45% |
By the end of the year, total operating airline capacity is estimated to grow to 73% of 2019 levels.
North American airline capacity is expected to continue recovering to pre-COVID levels faster than other regions through to the end of the year. This recovery is boosted by new flight routes from Dallas and New York.
| Airline capacity | Change vs same month in 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | North America | Total | |
| October 2022 | -39% | -33% | -42% |
| November 2022 | -24% | -15% | -33% |
| December 2022 | -21% | -14% | -27% |
| January 2023 | -22% | -13% | -27% |
| February 2023 | -22% | -9% | -27% |
| March 2023 | -19% | -14% | -26% |
International ECT spend spend in NZ in the week-ended 9 Oct was down 31% compared to the same week in 2019.
Spend in the industries 'food and liquor' (up 8% in the latest week) and 'fuel and automotive’ (down 11%) have been closest to 2019 levels over the past couple of months.
Spend figures have not been adjusted for inflation (the rate of increase in prices over a given period). Therefore spend figures are expected to be closer to 2019 levels than arrival figures.
Recent spend figures are from the low season, and therefore are likely to be more volatile.
International ECT spend in regions more reliant on international tourism is still below the national average (down 31% in the latest week).
However, this gap seems to be shrinking, likely due to holiday visitors making up a larger proportion of arrivals. Holiday visitors are more likely to participate and spend in traditional tourism activities.
A strong ski season in Queenstown resulted in international spend hovering around the national average up until the end of winter.
WHS visa arrivals totalled 4,620 in September 2022, almost double the 2,480 that arrived in August 2022.
Compared to pre-COVID levels, this figure is 88% of the 5,230 that arrived on September 2019.
WHS visa arrivals for 2022 up until the end of September totalled 10,460.
The increase in WHS visa arrivals was driven by arrivals from Europe, with the UK topping the list at 810 arrivals.
| Country | WHS visa arrivals - Sep 2022 |
|---|---|
| UK | 810 |
| Germany | 672 |
| France | 621 |
| Czech Republic | 297 |
| US | 228 |
| Other | 201 |
WHS visa approvals increased to 7,300 in September continuing the upward trend.
The total for September 2022 was 9% higher than September 2019, showing good potential for arrivals for the summer season.
The large figure for March 2022 was due to WHS Special Direction visas being granted automatically.